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Sea level rise walk – 'Port Phillip Rising' – November 2009
Sorrento - Port Melbourne, November 21 - 27
The sea is already rising at an increasing rate because of climate change.
Scientists are predicting seas will rise globally by more than a metre by the end of this century, and perhaps much more. For example, melting of the Greenland ice sheet is accelerating, it contains the equivalent of about seven metres of sea-level rise. Around the world many thousands of communities will be lost, millions of people will be displaced, and the map of the continents will be changed forever.
In early summer, we are planning to walk the eastern side of Port Phillip Bay, to highlight the impacts of sea level rise on people, communities and landscapes along the way. We will leave Sorrento on the Mornington Peninsula, and head north along the coast, marking the one metre level where we can with a simple marker (a stick with piece of blue ribbon).
[above: Point Nepean, image: Peter McConchie: http://www.petermcconchie.com.au/]
We aim to walk between 15 and 20 kilometres a day, and we welcome local people and organisations to join us for sections of the walk. We will hold a number of public forums on the way (possibly one in the southern Peninsula, one in Frankston, one in St Kilda). We aim to finish the walk at Port Melbourne, where we will hold a press conference.
Early next year the walk will continue along the western side of the Bay.
During the walk, we will collect still images and video grabs of people, asking them to explain their reaction to climate change and what they want to see the state and federal governments do to respond , including Kevin Rudd at Copenhagen. We will also ask people to talk about where they live and what sea level rise would mean for them. We will do daily video and written updates on our website so people can follow the walk. We also expect that a range of local environmental issues will emerge and be featured on the website. The site will also contain substantial background materials on sea level rise and Port Phillip Bay.
The walk will finish shortly before the international climate change negotiations in Copenhagen. While walking, we will encourage people to sign our 'demand climate justice' postcards, which call on the Australian government to show leadership at Copenhagen. We are urging the government to unconditionally commit Australia to a minimum of 40% cuts in emissions by 2020 and a global target of well below 350 ppm of carbon dioxide-equivalent.
The walk has been initiated by Friends of the Earth Melbourne in partnership with the Victorian Climate Action Centre.
We hope you can join us
Cam Walker and Damien Lawson
There will be extra information available here shortly.
We would be interested to hear your feedback on this proposal, specifically:
* if you would like to be involved in some way, such as joining some or all of the walk
* helping organise the walk
* hosting or organising a public meeting along the way
* helping with fund riaisng to cover costs
* preparing materials for distribution along the way
Please feel free to contact Cam Walker with your ideas: cam.walker@foe.org.au
[above: kids on the beach, St Kilda]
[cover image: Point Nepean, Peter McConchie]
How much sea level rise should we be preparing for?
Projections for coastal inundation
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fourth Assessment Report 2007 (IPCC) projects sea-level rise by up to 0.8 metres by the end of the century factoring in the melting of polar ice sheets. This has been recognised by the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change and has been adopted as a strategic policy basis by a number of states including Victoria, in its Victorian Coastal Strategy 2008.
Subsequent research by Professor Will Steffen for the Federal Department of Climate Change indicates that sea level rise could rise at the upper end of the IPCC projections (Steffen 2009:1).
A report released by the 2030 Research Center (2007) draws on the paleohistorical literature to draw a similar conclusion stating: ‘during the last interglacial period which occurred some 125,000 years ago, when the earth was 2o to 3o Celsius warmer, sea level was four to six meters higher than today’ (2030 2007:1).
Other leading scientists (Church et al 2008) have suggested an estimate of between 1 to 2 metres by 2100. Significant uncertainty exists regarding future extent of sea level rise beyond IPCC projections which depend on a range of factors such as greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and rates/extent of land ice melt.
The above suggests that the IPCC forecasts are conservative and should be treated as a minimum and a more pessimistic estimate of sea-level rise and storm surge may be required for planning purposes. The recently released Victorian Coastal Strategy 2008 has recognised this by stating: ‘As scientific data becomes available the policy of planning for sea-level rise of not less than 0.8 metres by 2100 will be reviewed’’ (VCC 2008:38).
excert from Planning for coastal climate change: An insight into international and national approaches
June 2009
Prepared by
Barbara Norman – Senior Researcher
Global Cities Institute
RMIT University
for the Victorian Department of Planning and Community Development
(we have added italics to the text)
[image above: Peter McConchie]
The walk
Sat 21/11/09:
Start at Sorrento and walk to Rosebud.
Sun 22/11/09:
Rosebud to Safety Beach.
Mon 23/11/09:
Safety Beach to Mornington.
Tues 24/11/09:
Mornington to Frankston.
(Public forum in evening)
Wed 25/11/09:
Frankston to Mordialloc .
Thurs 26/11/09:
Mordialloc to St. Kilda.
(Public forum at night)
Friday 27/11/09:
St. Kilda to Station Pier, Port Melbourne.
[In April 2009, 110km/hour winds trashed Frankston Pier. This occured under 'normal' tide conditions - that is, nowhere near a king tide. Image: Richard Laverick]
